Speculating to 1 G

By Tony Guo

This is my version of pack to power.  I will update you guys every week and perhaps make a youtube video of how I did. 

Essentially the rules are simple (you can play along too):

1. You can only invest 100 dollars into one card (although unrealistic this makes it more fun for readers)

2. For simplicity sake we will use SCG for all our prices 

3. At the end of the week you may “cash” out and your total for next week will reflect your cash out value; however you may also keep the cards

4. No penny stocks, so cards much at least be worth 1 dollar on SCG

5. I will begin with 500 dollars but feel free to start with less.  

6. My goal is to make 1000 dollars which means my end total should be 1500 dollars of cards. 

November 26, 2012: 

Inkmoth Nexus :

I am in love with this card.  It is great for affinity and amazing for poison.  Currently it is at 4 dollars and is fully stocked.  This is an instant buy for me. 

25 inkmoth nexuses at 4 dollars each =  100 dollars

Copperline Gorge:

You will start to see a trend in my buying patterns.  I am investing heavy into modern since I know in January people will need these cards.  I like the green/red combo because it is one of the cheapest fastlands.  Currently it is at 3 dollars and fully stocked.

33 copperline gorges at 3 dollars each = 99 dollars

Darkslick Shores

Initially I am going heavy on the fast lands.  Currently it is at 4 dollars and fully stocked.

25 darkslick shores at 4 dollars each = 100 dollars

Seachrome Coast

Easy.  Currently at 5 dollars and fully stocked.

20 seachrome coasts at 5 dollars each = 100 dollars

Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius

This is an interesting card which has slumped to 5 dollars.  I like the raw power level and believe that it is just waiting for a deck to exploit it. 

20 Niv-Mizzet at 5 dollars each = 100 dollars

TALLY:

 

So 500 dollars “spent” and we have

25 inkmoth nexuses

33 copperline gorges

25 darkslick shores

20 seachrome coasts

20 Niv-Mizzet

And a dollar…  

Teaching Speculation MTG

 By Tony Guo

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.

I am more than happy to tell you buy this card, stock up on that card, and sell that other card.  This gives me ample material to write about and is easier for me to generate content.  The harder thing to do is to teach you to speculate.  Call me a foolish man, but that is what I am going to try to do.  

Rarity

This matters a great deal in the modern booster pack.  With the advent of the mythical rare, one of the best investment opportunities is to load up on an undervalued mythic.  Mythics that have spiked include bonfire, Olivia, and even the hoof.  Each has at least quadrupled in price within the last few months.  Even bonfire’s steady decline does not damper the original surge from 6 dollars.  The reason mythics go up is because supply is low.  This is especially true for mythics that are a ‘four of’ in a popular deck.

The above is common knowledge, the following not so much.  Sets are printed in different quantities.  RtR has flooded the market, so while the cards are power they are not that rare.  Dark Accession is an example of a short printed set.  Dark Accession was essentially filler until Avacyn came out.  It did not sell well.  And draft was 2 innistrad/1 DA; therefore draft did not really increase the supply.  Because the set was not printed very much, I love speculating on cards from that set.  In particular Thalia and Lingering Souls are easy ‘buys’ for me.  Both have been featured in standard, modern, and legacy tier one decks.  Both are ‘four of’ in multiple decks. 

Lands

I won’t go over this too much since I wrote another article and a youtube video about this issue.  For lands it is all about timing.  Right now is an excellent time to pick up the buddy lands for GateCrash.  The spike in price standard lands experience is consistent and important to understand. 

Uncommons/Commons

These are my bread and butter to speculate on.  Initially, many are cheap.  And more to the point, when you speculate you should focus on percentages and not how many dollars a card goes up.  Uncommons/commons are the best for this.  Most players are more than happy to offload.  Many carry their uncommon/commons in boxes, since for whatever reason they incorrectly believe they aren’t good enough to be included in their trade binders.  You can literally see the happiness in their faces when you ask to see their box of “junk.” 

Did you know blood artist, lingering souls, intangible virtue, most of the guild charms, and many other uncommon are worth more than 35% of the standard rares?  Speculating on uncommon/commons can lead to some absurd percentage increases. 

I told you so: How my top five picks did from a month ago

By Tony Guo

If you guys follow my youtube channel: newlawstudent, then you know I pick cards that I "predict" will go up in price. 

My best speculation so far has been Olivia which has gone from 4-5 dollars SCG to 20 dollars SCG (the current price on SCG as of this writing).  

Buy why not go further and pick a top five?  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa_qVtJ-yj0&feature=plcp)

Because I love a challenge, in this video (and for subsequent videos I only pick standard cards).  I explain the reasoning behind my picks and how to become good at speculating.  

My top five from that video where

1. Host of Herons
2. Clifftop retreat
3. Vexing devil
4. Silverblade paladin
5. Angel of Jubilation 

Remember this was a month ago.  

Sigarda at the time of the recording was 8 dollars on SCG and 5 dollars cash.  She is now 15 on SCG.  I believe she is stable at 15 and perhaps will go down a little.  What I love is her raw power as a finisher.  And most importantly, she cost five which makes her faster than angel of serenity and most other standard beasts.  Pick one went up a solid 87.5%.  I would collect your profits and then offload her for some cards in the next blog.  

 
This is a push.  Clifftop retreat was at 8 on SCG when I predicted it as the number 2 card to pick up.  It is still around that price (currently 10 dollars ).  However, its guild (boros) has not be released.  The most important factor is that Gideon (a planeswalker many people are excited for) is aligned with boros.  Even if Gideon is more like Jace and mono-colored (white of course), he will feel like boros card (all the ads can't be wrong and he has a history with hot red hairs).  This makes clifftop a nice pick up.  The optimal plan is similar to woodland cemetery, wait for players to get excited about the new guild and then offload.  Even longer term is okay since the golgari buddy land is still at a respectable 15 dollars.  Only a 25% increase... for now.  Pick these up if you can, I fully expect it to match the 15 the golgari buddy land is now at.  

 My friend vexing devil was not doing so the last time I talked with him (he was a soft 2 dollars).  He has recovered nicely.  Right now vexing is 8 on SCG and sold out.  What I like about this card is that it exists with the shocklands.  With people shocking themselves left and right, 4 damage is a lot.  And boros is coming.... But enjoy the 300% profits.  :)

 
Wow.... this card has always been one of my favorites.  At the time of the recording he was only 4 dollars on SCG.  Today, he is 10 dollars and sold out.  I love how aggressive he is... and again if people think he's good in a green/white deck... wait til they try him in an actual aggro deck (boros of course).  But that's a 250% profit.  Even if you were to offload him now, you should be happy.  

 Like clifftop retreat Angel of Jubilation time to shine is later.  Her guild however is less intuitive.  While Orzhov seems likely, I believe she also fits well in another guild.... yes... again it is Boros.  When I reviewed her she was 2 dollars.  Today she has increased a tiny bit.  I will just call it even (SCG is down... right now).  

Overall 

1. Host of Herons +87.5%
2. Clifftop retreat +25% 
3. Vexing devil +300%
4. Silverblade paladin +250%
5. Angel of Jubilation +0%
 
 Not bad at all... not bad at all.