Friday, January 18, 2013

Finding the best speuclator on Youtube.



I love my subs… and I did all the work for you guys… Next time I’ll design a better contest promise.  Anyways these are my comments.  The winner was ________  at the end.  


Had a lot of fun with this. The SCG prices  2-4pm Texas time on January 18th 2013.  Will make a video and hold another one, but with better rules.  



Standard: Somberwald Sage (Foil) - $4.99 I'm thinking G/R ramp aggro gonna be big!
Modern: Bloodbraid Elf (Foil) - $3.99
Will you make an acception for my modern selection? Pleaseeeeee

First off I LOVE bloodbraid.  However Somberwald Sage Foil is still at 4.99 so no movement there.  And even foil only went up 25% to 4.99.  Elite you are winning at the moment with a 25% increase. 

Modern: Birthing Pod $2.99
Standard: Lilly of the Dark Realms $9.99
Somebody took bonfire :'(

Interesting picks…. For sure.  Birthing pod went up to 3.99 which is a 33% increase (next however I did say cards worth more than 5 dollars; the reasoning is that cards lower than that get bigger increases; but I believe we discussed this so it is okay).  And Lilly is up at 14.99 which is a 50% increase…. SO GOOD JOB.  Lilly was really unexpected.  An amazing 83% increase. 

Bottom of Form
Standard: Geralf's Messenger $7.99
Modern: Flooded Grove $14.99
ZOMBIES have not moved.  Geralf’s messenger didn’t get the message and crawled in place.  While flooded groove is now 19.99, a whooping 33% increase.  Modern Masters who? 

standard: Sphinx's revelation 21.99
Modern: Deathrite Shaman 11.99
I like this guys moxy picking the Revelation.  But it has not moved.  The shaman however has moved 6 dollars, up to 17.99 which is a 33% increase.  So Teamtaco still in the lead with 83% . 

Standard - Detention Sphere (Non-Foil) - $4.99
Modern - Remand (Ravnica - Non-Foil) - $5.99

Two blue cards I love… to play with.  J Detention sphere has dropped to 2.99 (good time to pick up)… so a 40% lost.  And remand stayed the same… so a net lost… L


Standard: Deathrite Shaman - $11.99
Modern: Vengevine - $17.99

Lol… how many times did people pick shaman and I didn’t notice.  I’ll have better rules next time.  Shaman is up 33%.  And Vengevine did not move… even though it has haste…


standard: champion of the parish 4.99
modern: verdant catacombs 19.99

Champion did not move at all.  But verdant surprisingly is 25… when will the madness end?  A decent 25% increase from Liam. 

Standard: Garruk Relentless 14.99
Modern: Threads of Disloyalty 4.99

I really like threads here.  And I was surprised it remained the same exact price…  weird.  Not surprised to see that Garruk didn’t move.  No net change. 

Standard: Huntmaster of the Fells $24.99
Modern: Fauna Shaman $4.99

The Huntmaster was smart.  However because of the large initial price even a 29.99 huntmaster is only a 25% increase.  The riskier card Shaman is still stuck at 4.99, no love for the shaman/vengevine combo in modern. 
·
Standard; Clifftop Retreat, $9.99
Modern; Ethersworn Canonist $9.99

Nice pick with the clifftop… as it is now 14.99 which is a whooping 50% increase.  Nice indeed.  However the cannoist did not move.. stuck at 10 dollars. 
·
Modern :Marsh Flats 19.99
Standard: Vault of the Archangel Set 9.96 

To be honest I’m not sure what set means… I’m guessing it is foil?  And I’m surprised the flats remained the same price.  The foil vault is 5.99.  But again what is a set? 
·
Modern-Lotus Cobra (4.99)
Standard-Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (7.99)
Seems fun. Thanks for doing this. Happy Holidays!

There’s my girl.  Thalia.  Has gone down.. to 6.99 what the heck is going on.  I clearly have no idea what happened.  Lotus cobra pumped up a dollar…to 5.99 though. 

Before I give my formal response, here's a bonus: Quirion Dryad. With the release of Simic in Gatecrash, I think that there will be a 3-color tempo deck with it.
Standard: Supreme Verdict $5
Modern: Verdant Catacombs $20

Supreme verdict went down as did most of the RtR predictions.  However Catacombs went up 25%. 
·
prices guys prices.. lol
angle of serenity 17.99
sword of feast and famine 12.99

Me filling in the gaps.  As Angel of serenity drops 3 dollars and sword remains the same.  A net loss for my friend crazy.

sword of war and peace is 11.99 SCG
jace AoT is 17.99 SCG

Love both of these picks.  The sword however did not move at all.  And Jace well he went down 2 dollars. 

Modern- Aburpt Decay (6.99)
Standard - Armada Wurm (6.99)

Helios is never one to read or listen to my instructions, picking two RtR cards…  I don’t even need to look… lol.  Okay I’ll look.  Wow abrupt decay is back at 6.99.  And the wurm… only 4.99 for this proud mythic card. 

Modern - Valakut, the Molten Pinnaclee (foil): 5.99
Standard - Lotleth Troll (foil): 9.99

Foil valakut, still only 5.99.  And the troll…. Continues to plummet… and is now a 6.99 foil. 

Modern - Path to Exile (nonfoil) : $5.99 SCG
Standard - Isolated Chapel (nonfoil) : $7.99 SCG

Doesn’t matter what path I choose they are all only at 5.99.  However the chapel… sold out at 11.99 which is a 50% increase.  Not bad at all. 

Modern: Blackcleave cliffs 5.00
Standard Jace Architect of thought 15.00

Cliff is now at 6 so a 20% increase.  Jace… 16 so a mild profit.  And I’m getting sleepy… 

modern- Gitaxian probe (pack foil) 6.9
Standard-  Ajani caller of the pride (normal) 14.99

G Probe… sounds weird to call it that.. lol.  Anyways went down in price to 5.99.  While ajani is back down to 11.99.  ummm sliverblade anyone? 

Clifftop Retreat (9.99$) - Standard
Snapcaster Mage (24.99$) - Modern

Love clifftop which is at 14.99 a 50% increase.  Sooo close… snappy is still at 24.99. 

Standard: Rest in Peace (foil) 9.99
Modern: Crucible of Worlds (nonfoil) 29.99
·
No change on the RIP foil.  And we really have to ask ourselves… what type of modern deck is seeknayr playing that he needs a 30 dollar crucible of the worlds?  The pricy card has remained the same. 


Standard: Champion of the parish 4.99
Modern: Inquisition of khozilek 5.99
oops ill change my modern to misty rainforest 34.99

No movement on both.  Or the inquisition… arghh…

Blood Cyprt(Standard) : SCG 9.99
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage (Mordern) : SCG 24.99

No movement on the crypt and my poor empress is now a 20 dolalr card.

Olivia Voldaren (Non-foil) : 12.99
Cryptic Command (Non-Foil) : 19.99

Olivia still at 12.99.  The command at 25.. not bad at all. 

Standard, Bonfire of the damed ($24.99)
Modern, AEther Vial ($17.99)
We've all seen how bonfire can get when a meta filled with zombies spiked, I feel history will repeat itself.
As for the vial, I feel just as mercenarybdu does. With aggro being one of the most popular decks for entry level players, this bad boy will be a gem of their collection. Also reducing supply of the old Darksteel vertion.

Bonfire 30 while vial still at 18.  Good but not 83% good. 

standard: Sphinx's Revelation (non foil) : 21.99 SCG
Modern: Hallowed Fountain RTR (non foil) : 12.99 SCG

Revelation hasn’t moved very much and the hallowed is now a 10 dollar SCG card… bottoming out like crazy…

I say NM Sword of Fire and Ice (SCG$40NM) for Modern is going to double by 50% once FNM Modern events are the norm. Aggro is going to continue to be a huge thing in Modern and as more enter the game, more are going to want cards from 10 years ago aka 2nd decade. As for Standard, I presume that Supreme Verdict (SCG$5NM) for Standard is rebound its worth by 50% once the surplus dries up. The price pushers are the eternal formats and 2013-2014 Standard. I'm talking regular copies. Not foils.

Oh what sword did not get picked?  Anyways no movement on fire and ice… and the verdict has gone down. 
·
Modern : deathrite shaman (nonfoil) : 11.99 SCG
Standard : Gisela, Blade of Goldnight (nonfoil) : 6.99 SCG

Haha deathrite is 33%.  And gisela is only ummm a dollar increase… what?  Love gisela


Modern: Inquisition to Kozilek (nonfoil) : 5.99 SCG
Standard: Ash Zealot (foil) : 6.99 SSC

Thanks inquisition and ashzealot for making me look ridiculous… neither moved… at all. 

So with a 83% increase… TeamTacosWii has won… congrats you are the best speculator on YOUTUBE!!! 

PM me your address.  Also if you are in the US I’ll send it if not then we can talk about an online reward.  Enjoy your tron lands!!!

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Speculating commons/uncommons


by Tony Guo



I am always happy to pm and respond to comments and even make videos if you guys have something you want to discuss.  Recently I received a few PMs requesting me to go into more detail about a video where I said you could be very successful speculating commons and uncommons.  


I made a video and watched it.  It was too similar to the video I already posted and there was not enough math.  For math’s sake, a written article is much better. 


Let’s take a look at two uncommon I speculated heavy in. 


Intangible Virtue:

I brought in at .50 and now they are 1.50.  That is a 200% increase. 


Lingering Souls:

I brought in at 1.50 and now they are 2.50.  That is a 66% increase.


Elvish Spirit Guide (old school)

I brought in at 1.00 and now they are 5.00.  That is a 400% increase. 


Now let’s look at some commons


Lava Spike:

Brought in at .50 and now they are 2.00.  That is a 300% increase.


Black Cat:

Brought in at .10 and now they are .10… No increase.


Lightning Bolt:

Brought in at .50 and now they are 1.00.  That is a 100% increase.


Faithless Looting

Brought in at .25 and now they are .75.  That is a 200% increase.


Sounds good right…


I also have many copies of cards that I may never use again and that did not rise in price at all.


When speculating commons and uncommons pick something you can live with a lot of.  That is my philosophy.  If the card becomes unmovable will I still be okay holding onto that many copies?



Now onto what you are waiting for, my picks.


If you can get these cheap I would


RtR:

The Charm Cycle


M13:

Tormented Souls


Innistrad Block:

Desperate Ravings

Tracker’s Instincts

Faithless Looting

Lingering Souls

Intangible Virtue


Scars Block:

The cycle of 2 life Cards (like gut shot)

Galvanic Blast


Zendikar Block:

Steppe Lynx

Plated Geopede

Burst Lightning


Shards Block:

Bloodbraid Elf

Blightning


There are many more.  You can always ask in the comments or PM.