Drop it like its hot: divesting at the peak

By tony guo

Sorry for the early articles (I normally like to blog wednesday), but my upcoming schedule is very hectic, and now is the only time I can really blog.

This is a finance article.  I promise.  

 One of the most important skills to learn as a a speculator is knowing when to drop certain cards.  

Last week I dropped 8 silverblade paladins because I believed they had peaked.  

Here is a list of cards to drop.

   
Craterhoof Behemoth is now at 13 dollars... what?  An eight mana 5/5.... should never be played unless its ability is amazing.  Its ability is okay and requires a build around.  This card will drop to 2 dollars soon.  And this time it will stay at 2 dollars.  I realize the deck it is played in is fun and the card has topped a few tournaments, however its overall power level is below average.  

The next card is probably one of the most overhyped cards I've ever seen in standard.  It is not good... it cost way too much mana for what it does which is stall the game.  If standard were slightly faster it would be unplayable.  The fact it is 23 dollars is laughable.  In most formats it is a bulk rare.  As soon as the format changes and decks are able to knock out players by turn 10, this card will sink to its natural price point of 5-10 dollars.  

Out of the three cards so far, it pains me the most to put Liliana here.  She is not 30 dollars, her current price.  While she is much stronger than the above two cards, she will continue to fall in price.  She's a staple in legacy, modern, and standard.  I expect her to drop to 20 before slowly creeping up again.  

 Geist is an amazing card.  But is it worth 35 dollars?  No, very few cards are worth that much.   The meta is extremely well suited for this card... right now.  But the meta will change, as it always does.  I expect this to drop down to 20-25 which is the more reasonable huntmaster level.  

Cards that are too dependent on the meta suffer the most when the meta shifts.  There is only one certainty in speculating magic cards, the meta will shift.  Jump off the ship before it does.