Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Investing in Magic: Jace and Bitterblossom Unbanned?

Tony Guo

One of the highest return investments you can make is to buy a banned card right before it becomes unbanned.  How do you find what these cards are?  One way is to look at price patterns. 


Jace, the Mind Sculptor is currently banned in modern.  However, I do not expect him to be banned much longer.  His price pattern indicates that at least one major store believes there is a chance that he will be unbanned.  SCG has upped his price from 70 to 100 (now sold out).  This is a huge increase in price.  Hidden in this increase, is a gap in knowledge.  SCG often takes cards off their website when they believe something "unexpected" will happen. SCG likely has Jaces in stock but is taking a wait and see stance.  If Jace comes back to modern, his price will skyrocket.  His black lotus project graph indicates his price has increased almost everyday.  Banned cards do not increase in price as dramatically or steadily as Jace has done... unless.... speculators believe it will be unbanned.  Sure, people will say it is due to legacy... answer.... Jace has always been good in legacy.  Current speculation is based elsewhere. Oh and by the way they will not be reprinting Jace in Modern Masters for two reasons, a. he is in the Zendikar block and b. when modern masters was announced he was on the ban list.  


Another card that maybe unbanned in modern is bitterblossom.  Like Jace this card is unlikely to appear in modern masters due to it being on the ban list at the time the set was announced.  Its price has steadily increased for the past month.   The black lotus project graph is nearly identical to Jace's graph.  The price point for bitterblossom is much lower than Jace; the card is 18 dollars on SCG and well stocked.  While Jace sees legacy play, bitterblossom does not.  Bitterblossom is the riskier of the two to invest in because of this.

If I had to pick between Jace or bitterblossom being unbanned I pick Jace.  There is much less risk with Jace if he remains on the ban list since he is a legacy staple.  However, the upside to bitterblossom is tempting. It depends on how much risk you want to take. 

2 comments:

  1. Awesome post. Looking forward to posts to come...

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  2. Thanks!!! I really appreciate the feedback. Hopefully we will get other writers onboard too. :)

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