Where this blog is heading

by Speculating Kitten

I promised you a magic article.  This is sort of a magic article.  I want to give my readers (all two of you), an idea of where this blog is heading.  I started this blog to help the average collector build up a trade binder.  My goal was to stray away from teaching you how to shark.  As I made more and more blog posts I found something interesting, what I was really good was sharking.  

Weird, I know, but please follow me.  By giving advice on how not to get sharked and what to look for, I was in a strange way teaching people how to shark.  One could easily take the advice as a column on how to shark.  Because of this, I strayed away from the true reason I started blogging, how to make the most of your collection.  I hate sharks, because I was one.  I know all the various tricks of the trade because that was my bread and butter.  My distaste for sharking left me unwilling to help my readers understand the value of their collections. 

In this aspect, I did not trust my readers to take my "lessons" and not flip them around and engaging in sharking.  That was my fault.  The content has been lack luster because I held back a lot.  Not because I thought you would think less of me... I mean who besides Helios actually reads this?  But because I didn't want to teach anyone how to shark.  

I was wrong.  And in the future I will trust you guys.  The content will be much better, because it will be about something I have a good understanding of, the art of the shark.  

   

A New's Resolution

by Speculating Kitten

This was the first New Years in five years where I spent it outside New York City.  It feels weird.  I can't explain it, but it cements my desire to go back to the city.  Getting texts from friends at 11:00 until 11:30... is no fun (there is a one hour time difference in Houston).  I don't know what it is, but not being in the city makes me sad.  

I made amazing friends in Houston.  I have an incredible playgroup and found a store I absolutely love.  Outside of TCGs, I will likely be admitted to the New York Bar January (I have to fly in for an interview and then the ceremony; really looking forward to getting to visit New York again).   

And try as I might, this article will not have any magic in it at all (I'll write a new magic article later tonight; I promise).  I would like to talk about my New Years Resolutions.  I have two.  

First, is to expand my employment skill set.  While I like my current job and I am good at it (super amazing at quickbooks), I want more than just an ordinary accounting job with a side of legal.  I want to move to a place where I know no-one, and have a completely new adventure.  I had such an opportunity before, but because of family and friends I decided to stay in Houston.  I regret that decision, but now I am ready to go someplace completely out there.  Mid-west?  California?  New York City?  I don't know, but I want an adventure, and a new city would certainly qualify as one.  

Second I am ready to start dating again.  My ex-finance left me jaded... she left me on Valentine days the semester I graduated law school and had to study for the bar exam.  On top of that we were engaged for almost 3 years at that point and had planned out a future.  We even had a shared bank account (which was a pain to cancel FYI).  Anyways enough mumbling, long story short, I've been somewhat of a recluse.  I don't even use FB that often.  So time to get back up and start fresh.  Also FB me guys!!!  

Those are my two new years resolutions.  Hopefully I can keep these two better than my last two which was to get married... and give up diet coke/pepsi..... yeah... about that (I'm drinking a diet pepsi now).  

Anyways, happy New Years guys.   
 

Sending Cards through the mail, Dos, Don'ts, And where is my Package

By Tony Guo

Happy Holidays.  Sorry for the delay in blogging.  I have been extremely busy with work, part time work, or oh yeah holiday work. Student loans... plus I am saving up for a trip to New York.  Holiday hours it is...

Anyways I will talk about delivery.  The perils and what to do and how to response.  I recently sent out 15 packages for around 200 dollars... which is sort of not good when you are trading for cards of the same value that you don't really need... oh addictions.  

Anyways I'm breaking this article down into two pieces, where to send and how to send.  

Where to Send

Post Net

In Texas we have a store called PostNet.  Actually Postnets can be found everywhere.  In Houston they are more common than the post office.  I prefer them to the USPS because the workers are more friendly.  Government workers are pretty much meh....  At least in my local Houston PostNet, the service is excellent, there are no long lines, and its next to a starbucks.  

USPS

Argghh.. First off, it seems that these employers just don't care at all.  Customer service is poor... very poor.  Sometimes I have nightmares about how bad the service will be... only find out that it is much worst.  

FedEx

If this wasn't so expensive, I would ship everything fedex.  But even sending basic documents can cost up to 10 dollars.  I only send cards via FedEx when the value is over 200 dollars.  I consider this the savest way to send.  Plus I love making photos at the FedEx Kinko center.  :)

How to Send 

 Delivery Confirmation 

From experience this is the safest way to send.  I always send deals worth more than 30 dollars through at least delivery confirmation. DC comes with tracking so its a nice way to prove that you sent.  Also, in my experience they handle anything with the DC sticker much better.  From my experience, I've only had one card package damaged when I sent it via DC.  And there were a few interesting circumstances around the person who received which led me to believe maybe it was the post office's fault.  

Registered Mail 

I had a horrible experience using registered mail recently.  Registered mail is 2-3 more expensive than DC.  Because of the difference in price, I expected Registered Mail to be faster.  However, it was not.  In addition to being slower, for about a week, there was no tracking.  I do not know what happened to the package, but I would guess that they lost it and then found it after a week.  My personal experience (having only used it once for a very important package) is that registered mail is slower, more expensive, and less reliable.  

Regular Mail

Oh the horror stories.  I know a lot of you guys skip out on getting DC which is 3-4 dollars.  And it may make sense not to get DC for smaller trades.  Here's the thing about regular mail, it gets lost.  And you can always resend, but the experience is frustrating on the person waiting to receive.  Plus a lot of scams happen when mail has no tracking.  On MOTL the sender must make sure that they the receiver received or have tracking.  Meaning it is the sender's responsibility.  On youtube, the rules are much less strict and defined.  This creates a tension between youtubers and a lot of scams that may not in fact be scams but lost mail.  


To Summarize, I don't like doing deals that are worth less than 20-30 dollars (unless they are gifts; i send all gifts by regular mail).  And most times I use DC.  It prevents a lot of bad things from happening.

A Christmas Tale

by Tony Guo

The holidays sort of make me all gushy… lol.  I love the colder weather and going shopping.  I go to the mall a lot, like at least once a week, but during the holidays it always seems more fun.  May be because I go more friends or because I have more money to spend (not that I made more money, just that I am more loose with spending).  For whatever reason, I enjoy the holidays a lot.  

But let’s get onto magic, since this is a blog about magic and not about gushy things.  Anyways, recently on Christmas Eve, a youtube trader linked me to a youtube video.  The video had my trade binder under a different account.  At that time I was at a starbucks.  I quickly made a video of the video (paradox), which was a good thing, because the next time I checked the link was private.   

Short story, long… I know… reversed.  I was furious someone had copied one of my old trade binders and claiming it was his.  But then I thought, why would someone do this?  My first reaction was the copycat was trying to scam other people.  The description had a wants list and a sub to me request, and probably the piece of evidence I found most damning, a quote saying “I don’t know how youtube works but if you approach me you send first and if I approach you I send first.”  

This was damning, because on youtube, when I post a binder up, it becomes a trading frenzy.  I get upwards of 10-20 requests for trades the day the binder is posted.  And under youtube rules (not mine, I like MOTL more because that’s what I am used to), they would send first.  And they do send first.  I’ve only sent first once and that’s when I asked about a card.  

Point being, I truly believed this youtuber was trying to scam people out of cards.  The evidence stacked up that way.   I posted the video, asked the youtuber who had sent me the link some questions, and went off with friends to go ice skating (which I am very bad at).  I get back, and it was a blood bath.  

After spending at least two hours working it out with the youtuber who had copied the video, we came to an agreement, an apology for name calling in exchange for me removing the title of scammer (putting warning instead) and me removing the detailed description.  

When I was done sorting out this mess, it was already Christmas….  Meaning I got to open presents early!!!!  I feel that everyone deserves the benefit of the doubt.  Here there was a lot of evidence and normally I would have been mean about it… but it being Christmas, I wasn’t.  

Man, I’ve lost touch with all my former sharkiness… lol. 

Drop it like its hot: divesting at the peak

By tony guo

Sorry for the early articles (I normally like to blog wednesday), but my upcoming schedule is very hectic, and now is the only time I can really blog.

This is a finance article.  I promise.  

 One of the most important skills to learn as a a speculator is knowing when to drop certain cards.  

Last week I dropped 8 silverblade paladins because I believed they had peaked.  

Here is a list of cards to drop.

   
Craterhoof Behemoth is now at 13 dollars... what?  An eight mana 5/5.... should never be played unless its ability is amazing.  Its ability is okay and requires a build around.  This card will drop to 2 dollars soon.  And this time it will stay at 2 dollars.  I realize the deck it is played in is fun and the card has topped a few tournaments, however its overall power level is below average.  

The next card is probably one of the most overhyped cards I've ever seen in standard.  It is not good... it cost way too much mana for what it does which is stall the game.  If standard were slightly faster it would be unplayable.  The fact it is 23 dollars is laughable.  In most formats it is a bulk rare.  As soon as the format changes and decks are able to knock out players by turn 10, this card will sink to its natural price point of 5-10 dollars.  

Out of the three cards so far, it pains me the most to put Liliana here.  She is not 30 dollars, her current price.  While she is much stronger than the above two cards, she will continue to fall in price.  She's a staple in legacy, modern, and standard.  I expect her to drop to 20 before slowly creeping up again.  

 Geist is an amazing card.  But is it worth 35 dollars?  No, very few cards are worth that much.   The meta is extremely well suited for this card... right now.  But the meta will change, as it always does.  I expect this to drop down to 20-25 which is the more reasonable huntmaster level.  

Cards that are too dependent on the meta suffer the most when the meta shifts.  There is only one certainty in speculating magic cards, the meta will shift.  Jump off the ship before it does.  

 
 


 

Confessions of a Former Shark Part I

by Tony Guo

After watching the Seattle Seahawks fake a punt, when they were up by 30 points in the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills, I knew I had to write this article.  

If you don't watch football, Pete Carrol who is the coach of the Seattle Seahawks called a ridiculous play to make his opponents, the Buffalo Bills, look pathetic.  The Seahawks were ahead by 30 points in the fourth, which is a position that no NFL team has ever lost from.  

I watch a lot of football.  I've been a die hard Texan fan since their first season.  What Pete Carrol did is an embarrassment, and a terrible display of sportsmanship.  He is the same coach who won 58-0 against a struggling Arizona Cardinals team...  

Everyday, I read on ESPN about selfish people.  A division III basketball player, Jack Taylor of Grinnel, scored 138 points against a helpless and very bad team.  Jack Taylor shot 108 times... and only made 52 baskets... If he really was good, why play division III?  Why not go to a division II team or heck a division I team?  Stories like this are more common now then ever, recently a women's high school basketball team put up 98 points... against their opponent's 2.  

How does this relate to Magic?  Sharks are the Pete Carrols and the Jack Taylors of the community.  They are self-serving people who care only about gaining value at the expense of the community.  They take and take and take.  Never, think otherwise.  Sharks are savages willing to rip children, new players, and even each other.  They are the ones who go to the store without a deck and have no intention of playing the game we enjoy.  They treat trading magic cards as a real job.  They don't even like the game and view it only in terms of profits.  They never buy anything from the store.  They would rather go to KFC and buy a soda there than pay the "inflated" prices at the local games store.  And they even have to justify gas money and time spent at the store.  

They have no self control.  When they begin to feed... it becomes a frenzy in moments.  No-one is safe.  Not store owners, not  experienced traders, and especially not kids who are just starting.  They are not satisfied with making one good trade.  They want to make sure by the time they are done trading, your binder has no card over 5 dollars.  They are relentless and will keep asking to see your trade binder.  

They will ask you the dreaded "what do you value this at" question.  If you say a lower value they will pull the card out and hold you to that value.  If you say a higher value, they will tell you its true value and make you feel like you are trying to cheat them.  

And worst yet, they will use excuses such as pack to power to justify their addicition to ripping.  They will say your cards will go down in price soon.  If this were true, then why do sharks want those cards?  Why would anyone want cards that are certain to go down in price?  Sharks never change... well almost never...  

I was a shark.  I "packed to power" four Jace the Mindsculptors, four stoneforge mystics, and a ton of other staples.  There were some nights I couldn't sleep because I felt so bad about trades I did.  Other nights I couldn't sleep because I felt bad about not maximizing on my opportunties and leaving valuables in the trade binder.  

I was sharked for 5-6 years by various people in various cities.  Only recently did I develop enough magic knowledge to become a shark.  I successfully sharked for a few months before something happened to put everything in perspective.  

My fiancee cancelled our engagement and wedding.  I was devastated; we been engaged for three years.  Not knowing what to do that day, I went to my local magic store.  I played magic... really played.  The people who I had sharked for months were there to listen and to support me.  Two locals took me out for drinks after FNM.  And only then, did I realized Magic is a community of people.  People who feel bad about lopsided trades and being ripped.  But also people who forgive and who can relate.  

Since then, I've used my knowledge to prevent sharking.  I believe teaching speculation is one way to reduce the need to shark.  And that is what I hope to do.   I promised to be honest in this blog.... many of my friends are sharks.... they know better to shark in front of me.  I don't care who is sharking ... I don't like it.  And I will always intercede if the trade is lopsided.  

Your local magic store is a community.  And it is important part of our lives.  We shouldn't let others destroy it.