Monday, December 3, 2012

The art of Speculation. Speculating to Power, Starting off





By Tony Guo

Another week... another article.  But let us backtrack to the previous article about Speculating to power, or 100 dollars to power.  

Again, these are the two rules.  

1. You may spend up to 100 dollars cash (includes shipping) to buy cards from a big online store.  These are your starting cards you must work with.

2. You may not shark when trading.  A dollar or two difference in cards is allowed.  But anything over 20% ruins the speculating nature of this "exercise."  You may also sell cards (obviously not at your lgs store...) for what they are worth.   



Rule 1 is far less important than Rule 2.  The reason I included Rule 1 was to make it sort of a challenge.  If you want to spend 10 dollars and speculate to power then that is okay too.  If you want to open a booster pack and speculate to power, the principles are exactly the same.  If you break Rule 1 it wouldn't be the worst thing. 


 DO NOT break rule 2.  You are absolutely not allowed to shark.  It ruins the whole point.  The point is that you can speculate and not rip people off and still get your piece of power.  

I urge you to join.  It will be fun.  I promise.  :)  



Okay now a discussion about the cards I ordered.  First off I ordered from Wagicalplace.com.  They are family owned and operated, and I have been using them for 10 plus years.  I've never had any major trouble with them.  And they were extremely responsive when there were minor issues.   And no, I don't get anything for posting since I'm a noob blogger/youtuber.  

Anyways, as one youtuber mentioned, the cards I ordered are rather strange.  That is until you look at my margins.  

 
Let's look at my binder. 

1 FDF  R  Artificer's Intuition (Foil)        $  1.20  $  1.20
  2 9EF  U  Gift of Estates (Foil)              $  1.50  $  3.00
  2 CSF  R  Fury of the Horde (Foil)            $  0.99  $  1.98
  1 TSF  R  Bogardan Hellkite (Foil)            $  1.49  $  1.49
  1 TSF  R  Jaya Ballard, Task Mage (Foil)      $  0.79  $  0.79
  3 TSF  R  Magus of the Disk (Foil)            $  0.79  $  2.37
  2 TSF  R  Magus of the Mirror (Foil)          $  0.49  $  0.98
  1 TSF  R  Mishra, Artificer Prodigy (Foil)    $  0.79  $  0.79
  1 TSF  R  Sedge Sliver (Foil)                 $  0.49  $  0.49
  1 TSF  R  Serra Avenger (Foil)                $  3.99  $  3.99
  2 TSF  R  Spectral Force (Foil)               $  0.49  $  0.98
  3 TSF  R  Stonewood Invocation (Foil)         $  0.79  $  2.37
  1 TSF  R  Tivadar of Thorn (Foil)             $  0.49  $  0.49
  2 SAF  M  Mayael the Anima (Foil)             $  7.49  $ 14.98
 11 AR   M  Maelstrom Nexus                     $  1.25  $ 13.75
  7 AR   R  Wargate                             $  0.45  $  3.15
  1 ZENF R  Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle (Foi   $  2.49  $  2.49
  2 M11F R  Leyline of Anticipation (Foil)      $  1.49  $  2.98
  2 AVRF R  Silverblade Paladin (Foil)          $  7.99  $ 15.98
  9 AVR  R  Deadeye Navigator                   $  0.45  $  4.05
  4 AVR  M  Descent into Madness                $  0.49  $  1.96
  2 AVR  R  Soul of the Harvest                 $  0.79  $  1.58
  7 M13  R  Boundless Realms                    $  0.49  $  3.43
  7 M13  R  Faith's Reward                      $  0.49  $  3.43
  2 M13  R  Staff of Nin                        $  0.49  $  0.98





Now let's look at two prices (per card).  Price in cash paid (first number) and current SCG price (second number).  

Artificer's Intuition (Foil)        $  1.20  $  3.49
 Gift of Estates (Foil)              $  1.50  $  4.99
 Fury of the Horde (Foil)            $  0.99  $  4.99
 Bogardan Hellkite (Foil)            $  1.49  $  4.99
Jaya Ballard, Task Mage (Foil)      $  0.79  $  3.49
 Magus of the Disk (Foil)            $  0.79  $  4.99
Magus of the Mirror (Foil)          $  0.49  $  1.99
Mishra, Artificer Prodigy (Foil)    $  0.79  $  2.99
Sedge Sliver (Foil)                 $  0.49  $  3.99
Serra Avenger (Foil)                $  3.99  $  9.99
  Spectral Force (Foil)               $  0.49  $  1.99
  Stonewood Invocation (Foil)         $  0.79  $  2.49
   Tivadar of Thorn (Foil)             $  0.49  $  1.99
    Mayael the Anima (Foil)             $  7.49  $ 14.98
 Maelstrom Nexus                     $  1.25  $ 3.49
  Wargate                             $  0.45  $  1.99
  Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle (Foi   $  2.49  $  4.99
   Leyline of Anticipation (Foil)      $  1.49  $  2.99
  Silverblade Paladin (Foil)          $  7.99  $ 19.99
  Deadeye Navigator                   $  0.45  $  1.99
   Descent into Madness                $  0.49  $  1.49
   Soul of the Harvest                 $  0.79  $  1.49
    Boundless Realms                    $  0.49  $  1.99
   Faith's Reward                      $  0.49  $  1.99
   Staff of Nin                        $  0.49  $ 1.99


Not it should make more sense.  

Of course I should mention why I did not pick up thundermaw hellkites (there were 14 in stock) for 15 dollars.  With the holiday sale, the hellkites were actually less than what SCG would pay you in cash for.  You could have made 3 dollars per hellkite times 14, 42 dollars in cash.  

And it turns out someone probably did just that.  It was a very difficult decision for me to not buy the hellkites.  For me to prove my point about speculation, I can't take the easy way out... which would be to spend vast amounts of money

Speculation is an art. And a good one at that. :) 

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